Cryptocurrency Expert Explains Why BTC Could Go Down in 2023

After we talked about the possible start of a Bitcoin bull run, it is worth looking at another point of view, which also has a right to exist and can show the situation from a new perspective. Cryptocurrency enthusiast Tony Ginea wrote on his Twitter account about why bitcoin can continue to move down and even go down to the $11,000-$14,000 level. In his opinion, Ethereum may also drop to $600-$700.

Zhinea did not become unfounded and cited 6 facts as arguments that could confirm his guesses.

The first reason for a possible decline, he called the behavior of the US dollar index. He noted that stablecoins, which are an analogue of USD, have a completely opposite correlation to traditional cryptocurrency assets.

He showed a graph in which you can see that during the rise of cryptocurrencies and the overall market capitalization of digital assets, the dollar index was significantly declining. This is due to the fact that investors are transferring their dollar savings to bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto assets. Accordingly, when the dollar gets stronger, it means skepticism on the part of cryptocurrency lovers and a preference to keep money in US dollars.

According to Tony Ginea, the USD index will soon collide with the support zone, which it will test. If successful, it will go up and BTC with the rest of crypto assets can really sink, but if the level is broken, then the dollar will be less valuable against the background of traditional digital assets.

The second reason is related to the first, but differs in the approximate point of waiting for the scenario to repeat. Based on what can be seen on the chart, the dominance of USDT and USDC stablecoins should reach their new all-time high in Q1 2023.

The rule of inverse correlation of cryptocurrency assets with the US dollar tells us that at this moment BTC can really sink and come to new lows that we have not seen for more than 2 years.

The third reason is quite simple. During each bear cycle, the flagship cryptocurrency lost 80-85% of its peak value. Considering that in November 2021 BTC was valued at $69,000+ at its peak, and now we are at the level of $16,800, within the current global downtrend, BTC has lost 75.7%, which is still not 80-85% of the maximum. Losses of 80-85% bitcoin will be able to achieve when descending to the level of $11,000-$14,000.

As the fourth reason, the expert named the closing of three candles below the maximum level in 2018. This happened for the first time in the current cycle. Now the capitalization of BTC is at a level slightly above $300,000,000. According to Tony Ginea, soon all crypto assets with weak liquidity will not be able to pass the test and will lose all funds. Against the backdrop of such a fall, BTC quotes along with ETH will also have to fall. The reason is somewhat dubious, but also worth attention.

Tony found the fifth reason in the charts of the S&P 500 stock index. He noted that the level had not broken through resistance for a long time and with a high probability could go down again and reach the next strong support level at $3,300. The S&P 500 is currently trading at $3,800+.

The last thing Tony Ginea decided to pay attention to is the effectiveness of the Fed. If it falls again in 2023, then this may entail certain consequences.

Given the attitude of the US Federal Reserve towards cryptocurrencies and the inverse correlation rule between the dollar and cryptocurrencies, it is difficult to agree with the last two statements, however, the rest of the reasons are quite interesting and may give rise to reflection.

Newcomers to the cryptocurrency industry may be confused by the fact that some experts are talking about the upcoming “To The Moon”, while others are saying that soon the bitcoin bubble will burst and the entire crypto industry will suck. If there are clear arguments behind these words, supported by graphs, then in this case, experts can be reckoned with. Otherwise, they speak on a whim and are guided by their emotions.

How to understand the current situation when one expert says that the bullrun is about to begin, and the other says that BTC will continue to decline and may find a bottom in the first quarter? The truth may lie somewhere in between, and both opinions need not be mutually exclusive. Bitcoin could indeed go down in the early months of 2023 and experience a longer crypto winter due to FTX issues. However, after that, he can start a new bull run, which makes both experts right.